Инфляция: конец эпохи ценовой стабильности. Для новичков, скептиков и профи - Марк Блайт

них ожидают. Некоторые из них пришли к идее разделить население на группы, включая так называемых «почти рациональных» агентов – тех, кто либо игнорирует свои инфляционные ожидания, либо не учитывает их при принятии решений о ценах или заработной плате. George A. Akerlof, William T Dickens, and George L. Perry, “Near-Rational Wage and Price Setting and the Long-Run Phillips Curve”, Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2000): 1–44, https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2000.0001.

Krugman, “Inflation: A Revolution of Falling Expectations”.

Peter Andre, Carlo Pizzinelli, Christopher Roth, and Johannes Wohlfart, “Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and Representative Samples”, Review of Economic Studies 89(6), November 2022, 2958–2991: https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/89/6/2958/6531988.

Alberto Binetti, Francesco Nuzzi, and Stefanie Stantcheva, “People's understanding of inflation”, Journal of Monetary Economics, (August 2024), 103652: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304393224001053#sec4.

Peter Andre, Carlo Pizzinelli, Christopher Roth, and Johannes Wohlfart, “Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and Representative Samples”, Review of Economic Studies 89(6), November 2022, 2958–2991: https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/89/6/2958/6531988.

Peter Andre, Carlo Pizzinelli, Christopher Roth, and Johannes Wohlfart, “Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and Representative Samples”, Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 6 (November 2022): 2958–91, https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/89/6/2958/6531988.

Jonathan Benchimol, Makram El-Shagi, and Yossi Saadon, “Do Expert Experience and Characteristics Affect Inflation Forecasts?”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 201 (September 2022): 205–26,

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268122002219?dgcid=coauthor#sec0013.

Peter Andre et al., “Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and Representative Samples”, Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 6 (November 2022): 2958–91, https://www.restud.com/paper/subjective-models-of-the-macroeconomy-evidence-from-experts-and-representative-samples/.

Saten Kumar et al., “Inflation Targeting Does Not Anchor Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Firms in New Zealand”, conference draft, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, September 10–11, 2015, 4,

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/KumarTextFall15BPEA.pdf.

Isabella M. Weber and Evan Wasner, “Seller's Inflation, Profits and Conflict: Why Can Large Firms Hike Prices in an Emergency”, University of Massachusetts Amherst, January 2023, Economics Department Working Paper Series,

https://scholarworks.umass.edu/econ_workingpaper/343/.

Если только вы не предлагаете люксовую пиццу в очень богатом районе. В таком случае более высокая цена может привести к росту спроса – такое явление известно как «товар Гиффена» или эффект престижной цены, когда высокая стоимость сама по себе становится частью привлекательности товара.

Thomas Philippon, The Great Reversal: How America Gave Up on Free Markets (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2017).

Brett Christophers, Rentier Capitalism (New York: Verso, 2020).

Weber and Wasner, “Sellers' Inflation, Profits and Conflict”.

Tom Perkins, “Revealed: Top US Corporations Raising Prices on Americans Even as Profits Surge”, The Guardian, April 27, 2022,

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/apr/27/inflation-corporate-america-increased-prices-profits/.

Matt Stoller, “Corporate Profits Drive 60% of Inflation Increases”, BIG by Matt Stoller, December 29, 2021,

https://mattstoller.substack.com/p/corporate-profits-drive-60-of-inflation?r=5205r&s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&utm_source=direct.

“More than a half of retail businesses are using inflation to price gouge”, Global Trade magazine website, originally appeared on Digital.com, November 30, 2021, https://www.globaltrademag.com/more-than-half-of-retail-businesses-are-using-inflation-to-price-gouge/.

Elke Hahn, “How Have Unit Profits Contributed to the Recent Strengthening of Euro Area Domestic Price Pressures?” ECB Economic Bulletin 4/2023, European Central Bank, April 2024,

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202304_03~705befadac.en.html;

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Frederik Toscani, and Jing Zhou, “Europe's Inflation Outlook Depends on How Corporate Profits Absorb Wage Gains”, IMF Blog, International Monetary Fund, June 26, 2023,

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/06/26/europes-inflation-outlook-depends-on-how-corporate-profits-absorb-wage-gains.

Stoller, “Corporate Profits Drive 60% of Inflation Increases”.

Philippon, The Great Reversal: How American Gave Up on Free Markets.

German Lopez, “Inflation and Price Gouging”, New York Times, June 14, 2022, https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/14/briefng/inflation-supply-chain-greedflation.html.

Stephen Rogers, Justin Cook, and Leon Pieters, “When Rising Prices Break Consumers' Trust,” Deloitte Insights, May 20, 2022,

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/retail-distribution/consumer-behavior-trends-state-of-the-consumer-tracker/price-gouging-and-rising-us-inflation.html.

Pamela N. Danziger, “Inflation and Price Gouging May Flip Luxury Consumers' Purchase Switch Off”, Forbes, June 2, 2022,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/pamdanziger/2022/06/02/inflation-and-price-gouging-may-flip-luxury-consumers-purchase-switch-off/.

Peter Andre et al., “Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and Representative Samples”; David G. Blanchflower et al., “The Happiness Trade-Off Between Unemployment and Inflation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 46, no. S2 (October 2014): 117–41, https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12154.

Isabella Weber, “Could Strategic Price Controls Help Fight Inflation?”, The Guardian, December 29, 2021,

https://www.theguardian.com/business/commentisfree/2021/dec/29/inflation-price-controls-time-we-use-it.

Robert Kuttner, “Inflation and Price-Gouging”, American Prospect, February 7, 2022, https://prospect.org/blogs-and-newsletters/tap/inflation-and-price-gouging/.

Samer Al-Atrush, “Saudi Aramco Hits Fresh Profit Record as High Energy Prices Deliver Windfall”, Financial Times, August 14, 2022,

https://www.ft.com/content/3c6a0c9a-0e4c-4494-88f8-d4c44cd04aa8?emailId=62fa6ba1ba0c8e002316012f&segmentId=2785c52b-1c00-edaa-29be-7452cf90b5a2;

Vivienne Walt, “Saudi Arabia Has the Most Pro table Company in the History of the World, with $3.2 Trillion to Invest by 2030. Who Will Say No to that Tidal Wave of Cash?”, Fortune, August 1, 2023,

https://fortune.com/2023/08/01/saudi-aramco-profitable-oil-company-trillions/.

Romain A. Duval et al., “Market Power and Monetary Policy Transmission”, IMF Working Paper No. 2021/184, International Monetary Fund, July 9, 2021,

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/07/09/Market-Power-and-Monetary-Policy-Transmission-461332

The quote is from Lindsay Owens, executive director of left-leaning Groundwork Collaborative, in Lopez, “Inflation and Price Gouging”.

Lopez, “Inflation and Price Gouging”.

Lopez, “Inflation and Price Gouging”.

Je Cox, “ This Was the Worst First Half for the Market in 50 Years and It's All Because of One thing – Inflation”, CNBC, June 30, 2022,

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/the-markets-worst-first-half-in-50-years-has-all-come-down-to-one-thing.html.

Цены на здравоохранение в США – это не рыночные цены, и они не определяются спросом и предложением. Это административные цены, которые устанавливаются по соглашению между различными участниками отрасли: страховыми компаниями, медицинскими учреждениями, поставщиками услуг и фармацевтическими компаниями.

Weber and Wasner, “Sellers' Inflation, Profits and Conflict”, 5.

J. P. Morgan Research, “Inflation and the Auto Industry: When Will Car Prices Drop?”, Global Research, J.P. Morgan Insights, February 22, 2023,

https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/autos/when-will-car-prices-drop.

Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradham, The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2020).

BBC News, “Cost of Living: Labour to Call Vote on Windfall Tax on Big Oil and Gas Companies”, May 16, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-61456268.

Глава 4. Когда инфляция переходит в гиперинфляцию

Ha-joon Chang, Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2007), 141.

Fabio Panetta, “Patient Monetary Policy Amid a Rocky Recovery”, speech at sciences Po, Paris, 24 November 2021,

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2021/html/ecb.sp211124~a0bb243dfe.en.html.

Phillip Cagan, “The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation”, in Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money, ed. Milton Friedman (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1956), 25–117.

Арнольд Харбергер определил понятия хронической инфляции и острой инфляции, которая представляет собой «быстрый всплеск инфляции». См. Harberger, “A Primer on Inflation”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 10, no. 4 (November 1978): 505–21, Emilio Ocampo, “Fighting Inflation in Argentina: A Brief History of Ten Stabilization Plans”, Working Paper no. 613, Finance Department, UCEMA/NYU Stern, Buenos