Инфляция: конец эпохи ценовой стабильности. Для новичков, скептиков и профи - Марк Блайт

Paul Schmelzing, “Eight Centuries of the Risk-Free Rate: Bond Market Reversals from the Venetians to the 'Var Shock'”, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 686, октябрь 2017 г., https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2017/eight-centuries-of-the-risk-free-rate-bond-market-reversals-from-the-venetians-update.pdf

Jeremy B. Rudd, “Why Do We Think at Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)”, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021–062, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Вашингтон, ОК, 23 сентября 2021 г., 18, https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2021062pap.pdf

“Navigating by R*: Safe or Hazardous?”, BIS, 15 сентября 2021 г., https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp210915.pdf

Surjit Bhalla, Karan Bhasin, and Prakash Loungani, “Macroeconomic Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting”, IMF Working Paper 2023/007, 13 января 2023 г., https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2023/007/article-A001-en.xml

Ben S. Bernanke, “Central Bank Independence, Transparency, and Accountability”, речь на международной конференции Института монетарных и экономических исследований, Банк Японии, Токио, 25 мая 2010 г., https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100525a.htm

Draghi, “Central Bank Independence”.

“Central Bank Independence and Transparency: Evolution and Effectiveness”, European Journal of Political Economy 24 (2008): 763–77.

Ana Carolina Garriga and Cesar M. Rodriguez, “More Effective than We Ought: Central Bank Independence and Inflation in Developing Countries”, Economic Modelling 85 (2023): 87–105, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.009; Daron Acemoglu, Pablo Querubin, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson, “When Does Policy Reform Work? The Case of Central Bank Independence”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2008, https://www.brookings.edu/wp-сontent/uploads/2008/03/2008a_bpea_acemoglu.pdf; Cristina Bodea and Raymond Hicks, “Price Stability and Central Bank Independence: Discipline, Credibility, and Democratic Institutions”, International Organization 69, no. 1 (Winter 2015): 35–61, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-organization/article/price-stability-and-central-bank-independence-discipline-credibility-and-democratic-institutions/605F4E0E40C7366B2B9413103B409BFA

S. Posen, “Declarations Are Not Enough: Financial Sector Sources of Central Bank Independence”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 10 (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1995), 253–74.

Adam Carola Binder, “Political Pressure on Central Banks”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 53, no. 4 (2021): 715–44; Nicolò Fraccaroli, Alessandro Giovannini, Jean-François Jamet, and Eric Persson, “Ideology and Monetary Policy. The Role of Political Parties' Stances in the European Central Bank's Parliamentary Hearings”, European Journal of Political Economy 74 (September 2022), https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0176268022000234

Sotirios Kokas, Thomas Lamber, Alexander Michaelides, and Vasso Ioannidou, “(In)dependent Central Banks”, CEPR Discussion Paper 17802, CEPR Press, Paris & London, 2023, https://cepr.org/publications/dp17802

Глава 6. Можно ли назвать войны с инфляцией «классовыми»?

John Maynard Keynes, Essays in Persuasion (Whitesh, MT: Kessinger Publishing, 2010), 44.

Ben Stein, “In Class Warfare, Guess Which Class Is Winning”, New York Times, 26 ноября 2006 г.

Matthew Klein and Michael Pettis, Trade Wars Are Class Wars (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2020).

Мы не будем углубляться в сравнение социальной значимости инфляции и безработицы – это выходит за рамки этой книги, но рекомендуем ответ Клаудии Сахм на слова Бернанке: Claudia Sahm, Stay-at-Home Macro (SAHM), «Unemployment Affects Everybody Too», 23 мая 2022 г.,

https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/unemployment-affects-everybody-too

То есть реальная процентная ставка равна номинальной процентной ставке.

David Ricardo, “The High Price of a Bullion, A Proof of the Depreciation of Bank Notes”, в The Works and Correspondence of David Ricardo, vol. 3, Pamphlets and Papers 1809–11, ed. P. Sraffa (Indianapolis, IN: Liberty Fund, 2005), 47–128.

Matthias Doepke and Martin Schneider, “Inflation and the Redistribution of Wealth”, Journal of Political Economy 114, no. 6 (December 2006), https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/508379

Mark Blyth, Great Transformations: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in the Twentieth Century (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2002), глава 5.

Paul Krugman, Twitter post, 11 декабря 2021 г., 23:58, https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1469728251643838467

Gregor Semieniuk et al., “Distributional implications and share ownership of record oil and gas profits”, University of Massachusetts Economics Department Working Paper Series.

“Inflation Usually Hits America's Poor Hardest. Not This Time”, The Economist, 2 февраля 2023 г., https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/02/02/inflation-usually-hits-americas-poor-hardest-not-this-time

Xavier Jaravel, “Inflation Inequality: Measurement, Causes, and Policy Implications”, Annual Review of Economics 13 (2021): 599–629.

Здесь также играет роль относительная слабость системы социальной защиты в США, которая не способна смягчить потери доходов, даже несмотря на пандемию COVID.

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Dan Garcia, and Maxim Pinkovskiy, “Inflation Disparities by Race and Income Narrow”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, 18 января 2023 г., https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2023/01/inflation-disparities-by-race-and-income-narrow/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosmacro&stream=business

Antonio F. Amores et al., “Inflation, Fiscal Policy and Inequality”, Occasional Paper Series No. 330, European Central Bank, без даты,

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpops/ecb.op330~2e42621.en.pdf

Evangelos Charalampakis et al., “The Impact of the Recent Rise in Inflation on Low-Income Households”, ECB Economic Bulletin 7 (2022),

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202207_04~a89ec1a6fe.en.html

Francesco Corsello and Marianna Riggi, “Inflation Is Not Equal for All: The Heterogeneous Effects of Energy Shocks”, Banca d'Italia, Working Paper No. 1429, November 2023, https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2023/2023-1429/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1

Grégory Claeys, Conor McCaffrey, and Lennard Welslau, “Does Inflation Hit the Poor Hardest Everywhere?”, 29 ноября 2022 г., блог-пост Bruegel, https://www.bruegel.org/blog-post/does-inflation-hit-poor-hardest-everywhere

Roberto A. DeSantis et al., “Motor Vehicle Sector: Explaining the Drop in Output and the Rise in Prices”, ECB Economic Bulletin 7 (2022),

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202207_02~5bde8ee0.en.html

Amores et al., “Inflation, Fiscal Policy and Inequality”.

Olivier Blanchard, Twitter post, 30 декабря 2022 г., 18:24, https://twitter.com/ojblanchard1/status/1608967176232525824?lang=en

Christine Lagarde, речь на пленарной сессии Европейского парламента, Страсбург, 15 февраля 2023 г.,

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2023/html/ecb.sp230215~a512d68d9f.en.html

Напомним, что аргумент о «специальных факторах», о котором говорилось ранее, объясняет инфляцию 1970-х не хуже.

S. Araki et al., “Under Pressure: Labour Market and Wage Developments in OECD Countries”, in OECD Employment Outlook 2023: Artificial Intelligence and the Labour Market, chapter 2 (Paris: OECD Publishing, 2023), https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/08785bba-en/1/3/1/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/08785bba-en&_csp_=9f4368e3fc59de4786c462d2cdc236&itemIGO=oecd&itemContentType=book

Danny Blanchflower and Alex Bryson, “Recession and Deflation”, IZA Institute of Labor Economics Discussion Paper Series, No. 15695, November 2022, https://docs.iza.org/dp15695.pdf

Например, см. “Firms' Profits: Cure or Curse?”, European Stability Mechanism, 12 мая 2023 г., https://www.esm.europa.eu/blog/firms-profits-cure-or-curse; Elke Hahn, “How Have Unit Profits Contributed to the Recent Strengthening of Euro Area Domestic Price Pressures?”, ECB Economic Bulletin 4 (2023), https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2023/html/ecb.ebbox202304_03~705befadac.en.html;

“European Economic Forecast, Spring 2023”, особенно “Box I.2.3: Profit Margins and Their Role in Euro Area Inflation”, 29,

https://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/forecasts/2023/spring/Box_I_2_3-Profit%20margins%20and%20their%20role%20in%20euro%20area%20inflation.pdf

Цитируется в Roni Hirsch, “Risk and Trouble: Adam Smith on Profit and the Protagonists of Capitalism”, American Journal of Political Science 65, no. 1 (2020): 166–79, https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12556

Niels-Jakob Hansen, Frederik Toscani, and Jing Zhou, “Euro Area Inflation After the Pandemic and Energy Shock: Import Prices, Profits and Wages”, IMF Working Paper 23/131, International Monetary Fund, June 2023, 2,

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2023/06/23/Euro-Area-Inflation-after-the-Pandemic-and-Energy-Shock-Import-Prices-Profits-and-Wages-534837

Carston Jung and Chris Hayes, “Inflation, Profits and Market Power: Towards a New Research and Policy Agenda”, IPPR, December 7, 2023, https://www.ippr.org/files/2023-12/1701878131_inflation-profits-and-market-power-dec-23.pdf, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Frederik Toscani, and Jing Zhou, “Europe's Inflation Outlook Depends on How Corporate Profits Absorb Wage Gains”, IMF Blog, June 26, 2023,

https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/06/26/europes-inflation-outlook-depends-on-how-corporate-profits-absorb-wage-gains

Hansen, Toscani, and